More inside baseball

On October 30, an American Research Group poll had Clinton ahead of Obama in South Carolina by a margin of 41 to 19 percent. On November 21, SurveyUSA had Clinton with 47 percent and Obama at 33 percent. The fact that the two polls were by different organizations makes direct comparison a bit dicey--watch polls from a particular organization and you'll notice trends. For instance, Bush's popularity rating is likely to be consistently a few points higher in some polls than in others. That being said, the narrowing of the race in South Carolina is probably real, and mirrors perceptions from most of the rest of the country.

Before you reach any conclusion, however, note that a November 1 survey from Winthrop University (I don't know anything about this organization) had the race as Clinton 33, Obama 23.

All of these polls show bad news for John Edwards, who is running a poor third in a state that borders his home in North Carolina.

Perhaps the most important statistic is that the South Carolina primary takes place on January 29th, almost four weeks after the Iowa caucuses and three weeks following New Hampshire.