Georgia on my mind

The Russian attack on Georgia is an obvious revival of Czarist imperialism. More properly, Russian imperialism; the Soviets were little different from either the Czars or the present republic.

Less obvious is a parallel between Georgia and Czechoslovakia, a theme being played by the Georgians themselves, who suggest that if the West will not stand up to Russian imperialism in their country, the other nations on the fringe of the old Soviet borders are doomed. There is a good deal of cynicism in this, but also truth; if the Russians manage to topple the elected (and recently re-elected) government of Georgia, how safe can the Baltic nations or even Ukraine feel? All have large Russian minorities (which were greatly augmented during the Soviet years, as part of a policy to dilute the power of hereditary claims on such lands), such as the ones being used by the Russians in South Ossetia and the other Georgia's other break-away region, Abkhazia.

The Georgians, encouraged by loud protestations of friendship and alliance from the West--particularly by our own George W.--overstepped by moving into South Ossetia last week. Or maybe not. It's been suggested that a collision with Russian interests was inevitable, and that the Georgians knew they'd lose militarily but hoped to arouse the West to protect them against serious future threats. That's a high-risk strategy, but when you are the pro-western president of a small nation on the border of Russia, it may be the best you can hope for.

According to The New York Times, the Russian offensive has now reached into Georgia itself, outside the borders of the separatist enclaves. That presents the West with a real challenge; whether the Georgian simile between that small nation and the Czechs at the time of Munich was valid or not, it looks legitimate today.

So, what can the West do?

Given Russia's oil and gas wealth, and Western Europe's dependence on supplies from it, economic sanctions are likely to be laughed at. Nor can we expect any of our important NATO allies to do anything to annoy the Russians. (Not even the Poles, with their hereditary hatred of Russia.) The French, Germans and Italians, who won't even engage the Taliban in Afghanistan in a meaningful way, are not likely to flex military muscles or do anything else that might antagonize the Bear.

The American debacle in Iraq is, of course, a contributing factor here; we are so spread out and weakened that the Russians were undoubtedly encouraged to believe that we will do nothing but bluster at their ambitions. (They may prove correct in that assessment.) One of the few beneficial effects of our ineffectual adventuring, however, has been to place American forces not too far from Georgia. There are steps that we could take to make the Russians pause and that might encourage a diplomatic end to the crisis. They would first raise the temperature a great deal, but Putin--the man who still controls Russia, from all appearances--seems to be like my uncle Harold, about whom we used to say that you had to hit him upside the head with a 2 x 4 to get his attention.

The 2 x 4 might include:

--Shipping surface-to-air missiles to Georgia. Shoulder-fired missiles took a great
toll on Soviet aircraft in Afghanistan.
--Move elements of the Sixth Fleet from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea.
--Move a carrier task group to the Eastern Med, off Turkey, where it could
potentially provide air support to the Georgians. (We would not have to announce
that; Russian intelligence would undoubtedly pick it up.)
--Send American aircraft to Georgia and park them ostentatiously around Georgian
airfields, to deter further Russian airstrikes there. Some of them could be A-10
Warthog ground-attack aircraft (tank-busters) as a pointed warning against further
ground incursions

As I say, these steps would be serious and would increase tension to a very high level. They would have to be accompanied by insistence that a diplomatic solution is absolutely necessary. But I fear that we have few other options except defeat for our declared allies in Georgia, and for other democracies along the rim of the old Soviet Union. That is where George W. Bush's policies have left us.