Seven Up?

Paul Krugman shows why he has quickly risen to the top rank of political commentators. After noting that party affiliation is much the most important factor in assessing any congressional candidate this year, he asks, "O.K., what about the Senate race in Connecticut, where Ned Lamont is the Democratic nominee, and Mr. Lieberman, who lost the Democratic primary, is running as an independent but promising to caucus with the Democrats if he wins? Is this a case where the man, not the party, is what matters?"

The answer sent a chill down my spine. "Only if you believe that Mr. Lieberman’s promise not to switch parties is 100 percent credible."

Do you? The conventional wisdom has been that Democrats need to gain six seats to have a majority in the Senate. Krugman rightly calls that into question. Do you really believe that Lieberman (who said " I haven’t thought about that enough to give an answer,” when asked if the country would be better off with a Democratic majority in the House) will stay with the Democrats if switching parties could give Republicans an effective majority--i.e., if there were 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and Joe, so that his switch would give Republicans the power (with Dick Cheney) to organize the chamber?

If the Democrats (and Joe) gain 7 seats, Lieberman will stay with the party, because there would be no profit in switching. If he could swing the Senate, he'll face very powerful blandishments (if not outright bribes), and I, for one, am by no means certain he'll resist them successfully.