Fearless Forecast

With less than two weeks before election day, it's time for some fearless forecasting.

If you've read past posts, you know my views on some contests, and I'm not going to give a laundry list here. Scroll down or scan the archives if you're interested.

I am going to predict that we're going to see some surprises. (fearless, or what?) I see Democrats picking up 25-30 seats in the House, maybe more. In the Senate I'm less certain, in part because there are fewer seats up for grabs and also, truth to tell, because the race in New Jersey seems to be closing again (the latest NY Times poll has Menendez one point ahead and fully 37 percent of respondents said they could change their mind by election day!) nonetheless, I'm going out on a ledge and saying that Democrats will have a majority in the upper chamber.

One reason for my predictions is that I believe that one or two races that were not supposed to be all that close will turn into upsets. For instance, in Arizona, a new poll has Democrat Jim Pederson within six points of Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), who leads 47-41 percent. There's a libertarian candidate who garnered support from 3 percent of those polled--leaving 9 percent undecided. Nine percent doesn't sound like a lot when you need to pick up six points, but remember that people undecided this late in a campaign don't break predominantly for the incumbent--if they support the person who's in, they usually make that pick early. And there is still time for the race to shift; given the string of bad news for the Bush administration, changes are most likely to favor the Democrat.

Similar results may occur in some House races, meaning that Democrats could gain more seats than anyone (TONE included) is willing to predict. If it happens, watch this space as I proclaim my prowess in prognostication.

Now, some of you are thinking that I'm forgetting the GOP edge in cash (although Pederson is personally wealthy) and its vaunted get-out-the-vote operation. Well, I may be whistling past the graveyard, but I suspect that the Republican GOTV effort is going to prove a lot less effective than is commonly thought, if only because so many people have been so turned off that a phone call or offer of a ride to the polls is not going to bring them back to the party.

I also believe that there are so many seats in House and Senate up for grabs, and that negative ads have been so widely circulated and so broadly condemned that a late surge in Republican advertising will have little effect.

No doubt about it, what I predict is what I'd like to see. I may well be wrong; the smart money has to see Democratic control of the Senate as a long shot. So maybe I look like a genius on November 8th.

[ Caveat: I have not considered the effect that problems with voting might have in a number of close races, especially in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Call me a fool, but I'm going to assume that the Republicans will not try to steal enough races to make a difference.)