The New York Times, Sept. 10, 2007
As General David H. Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, prepared to report to Congress today on gains made by the surge of 30,000 additional US troops in Iraq, two national polls released yesterday indicated that a majority of Americans believe the increased US troop presence has failed to deliver significant improvements in the war-torn country.
The Boston Globe, Sept. 10, 2007
(The Times owns The Globe. At least we see truth in claims of editorial independence.)
Here's how I read the Times/CBS poll:
Four times as many Americans (but still only 21 percent) think Congress to be most trustful on Iraq as rely on the White House (an incredible 5 percent).
Although 68 percent of respondents say they trust the military most, the language of the question may have had an important effect. They were asked, "If you had to choose [always a dangerous condition] who you trust with successfully resolving the war in Iraq?" There's no telling what individuals regard as "successfully resolving" the war; how many Americans would regard pulling out with the fighting still going on--which is what most people want, or at least acknowledge is going to happen--as a success? Besides, "resolving the war" suggests a military solution (whatever that means). If the question were "If you had to choose who you trust with ending the Iraq war?", I suspect that the answers would have been markedly different.
The same kind of selection bias comes into play in other questions:
The poll asked, Should the US: a) withdraw all troops within a year: b) withdraw some troops but retain some to train Iraqi troops, conduct raids against terrorists [who is a terrorist in Iraq? al Qaeda in Iraq? Sunni insurgents? the Mahdi Army? other Shi'ite militias?] and protect American officials; c) keep the same number of troops in Iraq as there are now and continue to fight until there is a stable democracy in Iraq? Given that question, the surprising thing is not that 56 percent of those asked chose the second option, but that 22 percent opted for a fixed withdrawal date and 20 percent for "staying the course." (Does anyone, Bush included, really believe that there will be a "stable democracy" in Iraq within the lifetime of anyone now breathing?)
No matter how well designed, polls like this are no substitute for leadership. For instance, the Times/CBS poll reports that 35 percent of people believe that the "surge" has made the situation better, up from 19 percent in July; it seems fair to say that the administration's relentless campaign (aided by professional military men) to paint a rosy picture has had an effect.
But contrast this with a BBC poll of the people with front-row seats--the Iraqis. What do they think? 70 percent believe that the "surge" has made things worse in the areas to which additional soldiers have been sent. Just under 70 percent think things have got worse in other areas. 70 percent think conditions for political reconciliation--the original excuse for the "surge," remember--have got worse. 65 percent think the ability of the Iraqi government to carry out its work has got worse.
Oh, and you know about all those reports of our new Sunni allies, like the ones W trumpeted in his visit to al Anbar province last week? According to the BBC, 93 percent of Sunnis believe that attacks on US-led forces are justified.
Here's how I read the Times/CBS poll:
Four times as many Americans (but still only 21 percent) think Congress to be most trustful on Iraq as rely on the White House (an incredible 5 percent).
Although 68 percent of respondents say they trust the military most, the language of the question may have had an important effect. They were asked, "If you had to choose [always a dangerous condition] who you trust with successfully resolving the war in Iraq?" There's no telling what individuals regard as "successfully resolving" the war; how many Americans would regard pulling out with the fighting still going on--which is what most people want, or at least acknowledge is going to happen--as a success? Besides, "resolving the war" suggests a military solution (whatever that means). If the question were "If you had to choose who you trust with ending the Iraq war?", I suspect that the answers would have been markedly different.
The same kind of selection bias comes into play in other questions:
The poll asked, Should the US: a) withdraw all troops within a year: b) withdraw some troops but retain some to train Iraqi troops, conduct raids against terrorists [who is a terrorist in Iraq? al Qaeda in Iraq? Sunni insurgents? the Mahdi Army? other Shi'ite militias?] and protect American officials; c) keep the same number of troops in Iraq as there are now and continue to fight until there is a stable democracy in Iraq? Given that question, the surprising thing is not that 56 percent of those asked chose the second option, but that 22 percent opted for a fixed withdrawal date and 20 percent for "staying the course." (Does anyone, Bush included, really believe that there will be a "stable democracy" in Iraq within the lifetime of anyone now breathing?)
No matter how well designed, polls like this are no substitute for leadership. For instance, the Times/CBS poll reports that 35 percent of people believe that the "surge" has made the situation better, up from 19 percent in July; it seems fair to say that the administration's relentless campaign (aided by professional military men) to paint a rosy picture has had an effect.
But contrast this with a BBC poll of the people with front-row seats--the Iraqis. What do they think? 70 percent believe that the "surge" has made things worse in the areas to which additional soldiers have been sent. Just under 70 percent think things have got worse in other areas. 70 percent think conditions for political reconciliation--the original excuse for the "surge," remember--have got worse. 65 percent think the ability of the Iraqi government to carry out its work has got worse.
Oh, and you know about all those reports of our new Sunni allies, like the ones W trumpeted in his visit to al Anbar province last week? According to the BBC, 93 percent of Sunnis believe that attacks on US-led forces are justified.
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