Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Don't Look Now

But there could, just could, be an upset building in the Texas governor's race.

For months there has been a lot of talk about how Rick Perry (another of those Republicans notable mainly for his hair) was likely to win another term as governor, even though hardly anyone likes him. The problem is that instead of uniting behind one candidate the not-Perry camp fractured into four: Democrat Chris Bell, former Republican Carol Keeton Strayhorn, independent musician and detective novelist Kinky Friedman and Libertarian James Werner. Bell had a hard time starting off, Strayhorn couldn't get significantly over about a quarter of the vote, Friedman was in the teens and Werner in the low single digits; the net result was that it looked like Perry would be re-elected with less than 40 percent of the vote.

Well a new Zogby poll shows that Bell has pulled within 8 points of Perry; the governor's support has fallen slightly, but Bell has picked up 6 points in a short time. Perhaps more important, if this poll is right, Strayhorn's support has fallen to 15 percent and Friedman is just below her. All of which might mean that the Texas voters have decided that neither of them can win, and that some of them are moving toward Bell as a way to deny the governor another term. It's still a long shot, but if that is the case, Bell just might be able to catch Perry at the wire.

(A few notes of caution: My impression--I've never done a systematic study--is that Zogby's polls are not as reliable as others'. Also, a Zogby poll done six days ago showed Perry at 38 percent and Bell at just 22. Has the Democrat really picked up a point a day? Maybe, or maybe the change is a feature of that pesky "margin of error." Other polls from a few days ago don't show the race as close as Zogby's latest one does, either.)

Where's the Outrage?

A friend wrote:

"You know, I heard on the NPR that a number of weapons given to Iraqi troops in the form of rocket launchers, rifles and machine guns have gone missing. And worse yet, of $133 million spent on the weapons for Iraqi, almost NONE of them have been registered by their serial numbers so they can be tracked.

"Now you know what's really sad? Normally, I would be frigging outraged. But after almost 6 years of almost single-minded incompetence, my outrage tank is almost empty. This is how they win - I know. But if I have trouble staying outraged, imagine how the average American who is less informed gets the outrage level up when they hear this nonsense."

And imagine the chagrin of the blogger who didn't get a chance to post about this when it hit the news yesterday? So much to be outraged about, so little time!

Monday, October 30, 2006

The Magic Fades

Over at talkinpointsmemo, Josh Marshall has a very good, brief, take on the multitude of stories about Karl Rove's confidence that the GOP will maintain its hold on both houses of Congress. Asking the rhetorical question, what does Rove know that the Democrats, the pollsters and the professional political analysts know? Marshall answers, "Nothing." He suggests that Rove is posturing, because he knows that if he or W show doubt, the Republican GOTV effort goes down the drain.

I think Marshall is right, although not quite for the reasons he states.

If you think about it, people who become pre-eminent in their fields usually have a limited life. Very few politicians can kindle much enthusiasm after six or eight years. Look at the lives of superstar entertainers and you'll see that their careers usually show a few years at the very top, followed by many more years in which they were successful, but not at the same level. (Consider the films Denzel Washington is making today vs. those he made a few years ago.) Even great men like Einstein usually have a short period of intense originality, followed by years, even decades of testing, extending and developing the ideas that came to them during that burst of creativity. There are exceptions, of course, but they are just that, exceptions.

Rove's playbook is well-known by now, and a bit dog-eared, and it's clear that he hasn't come up with anything fundamentally new for 2006. Democrats know what to expect and they are better able to meet his tricks.

Finally, the world and the nation have changed from 2000 and 2004. This year--although they did not start out to do it--Democrats have taken a leaf from Rove's script and turned the Republicans' presumed strength on national security into a liability. Thanks to Republican folly, they have also gained the high ground on morality in politics and--a week before the voting--it seems pretty clear that the GOP lacks a Democratic poster boy (or girl) to compare with Mark Foley, Duke Cunningham, Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff. At this point, it would take Osama bin Laden on a plate to change things.

So let Karl Rove posture and pose. He's not going to pull this one out.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

George Allen Attacks Marine Corps

I'm sure you've heard that Sen. George Allen (R-VA)--who, according to Maureen Dowd, is now known in Washington as Macacawitz--has been attacking Jim Webb for certain passages in some of his novels. Turns out that one of them, Fields of Fire is required reading for Marine corporals and sergeants. The website of the Marine Corps Professional Reading Program calls the book, "The classic novel of the Vietnam War."

The book is also on the Commandant's official reading list.

Of course, Sen. Macacawitz, who is one of the great fakes of our time, wouldn't know anything about that, any more than he would know anything about what it is like to serve in a combat zone or, for that matter, in the military.

Oh, Sweet Irony

The feds are investigating a voting machine manufacturer that was taken over last year "by a small software company that has been linked to the leftist Venezuelan government of President Hugo Chavez."

Could there by anything more delicious? Well, yes, but this will do for now.

Might the administration recognize that the voting machine obeys the hand that feeds it--and that those hands may not always be Republican?

Ah for the principle of the gored ox!

Friday, October 27, 2006

The Tortuousness of Torture

Photo-Ops are designed to insulate politicians from questions--as the name implies they are opportunities for film and video, not interrogation. So it says something about the White House's sensitivities these days that the President used a photo op to declare that, "This country doesn't torture, we're not going to torture. We will interrogate people we pick up off the battlefield to determine whether or not they've got information that will be helpful to protect the country."

Mr. Bush was trying, of course, to undo Dick Cheney's uncharacteristic honesty, when he admitted to a conservative talk-show host in Fargo, North Dakota, that the United States has used water-boarding on al-Qaeda detainees. (Cheney may have been lulled into relaxing his guard by his interviewer's question, "Would you agree a dunk in water is a no-brainer if it can save lives?" Calling water-boarding a dunk in the water is like referring to being burnt at the stake as getting a hotfoot.)

Not that it really matters what the President says; Americans are finally wise to him. The most charitable interpretation of Mr. Bush's veracity would be to use Churchill's description of Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin: "Baldwin occasionally stumbles over the truth, but he picks himself up, dusts himself off and hurries on as though nothing had happened."

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Police Blotter

From the party that brought you family values:.

As we reported, Congressman Jim Gibbons (R-NV), Republican candidate for governor of Nevada, has been accused by a 33-year old woman of accosting and propositioning her.

Now the woman asserts that "she was threatened, pressured, and even offered money, to drop her allegations and change her story." We make no judgment as to who is telling the truth in this affair--or would-be affair. (W.e report--you decide) . But it can't be good news for Gibbons that the story is still on the front burner. Democrats, on the other hand, are chortling.

Fearless Forecast

With less than two weeks before election day, it's time for some fearless forecasting.

If you've read past posts, you know my views on some contests, and I'm not going to give a laundry list here. Scroll down or scan the archives if you're interested.

I am going to predict that we're going to see some surprises. (fearless, or what?) I see Democrats picking up 25-30 seats in the House, maybe more. In the Senate I'm less certain, in part because there are fewer seats up for grabs and also, truth to tell, because the race in New Jersey seems to be closing again (the latest NY Times poll has Menendez one point ahead and fully 37 percent of respondents said they could change their mind by election day!) nonetheless, I'm going out on a ledge and saying that Democrats will have a majority in the upper chamber.

One reason for my predictions is that I believe that one or two races that were not supposed to be all that close will turn into upsets. For instance, in Arizona, a new poll has Democrat Jim Pederson within six points of Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), who leads 47-41 percent. There's a libertarian candidate who garnered support from 3 percent of those polled--leaving 9 percent undecided. Nine percent doesn't sound like a lot when you need to pick up six points, but remember that people undecided this late in a campaign don't break predominantly for the incumbent--if they support the person who's in, they usually make that pick early. And there is still time for the race to shift; given the string of bad news for the Bush administration, changes are most likely to favor the Democrat.

Similar results may occur in some House races, meaning that Democrats could gain more seats than anyone (TONE included) is willing to predict. If it happens, watch this space as I proclaim my prowess in prognostication.

Now, some of you are thinking that I'm forgetting the GOP edge in cash (although Pederson is personally wealthy) and its vaunted get-out-the-vote operation. Well, I may be whistling past the graveyard, but I suspect that the Republican GOTV effort is going to prove a lot less effective than is commonly thought, if only because so many people have been so turned off that a phone call or offer of a ride to the polls is not going to bring them back to the party.

I also believe that there are so many seats in House and Senate up for grabs, and that negative ads have been so widely circulated and so broadly condemned that a late surge in Republican advertising will have little effect.

No doubt about it, what I predict is what I'd like to see. I may well be wrong; the smart money has to see Democratic control of the Senate as a long shot. So maybe I look like a genius on November 8th.

[ Caveat: I have not considered the effect that problems with voting might have in a number of close races, especially in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Call me a fool, but I'm going to assume that the Republicans will not try to steal enough races to make a difference.)

No Brainer

Surprising that this hasn't made front pages across America (and the world): Dick Cheney has admitted that the United States has subjected captured al-Qaeda operatives to water-boarding. To the Vice-President of the World's only superpower, "It's a no-brainer for me."

According to Vice, water-boarding, which induces the sensation that the subject is on the verge of drowning is not torture. Maybe we should try it on his wife and daughters and see if that changes his opinion.

(The link contains an illustration of water-boarding. The form shown is actually a rather "benign" form of this practice--I have read accounts of water-boarding that is much more brutal and carries a substantial risk of actually drowning the victim.)

For some perspective, back around 1960 I recall reading--it seems to have been in a Time-Life publication--of how Dostoevsky was arrested by the Czar's police, then taken from his cell, blindfolded, tied to a stake and made to listen to the preparations of the firing squad, following which he was made to wait for the fatal fusillade. After some time (maybe 20-30 minutes), he was untied and returned to his cell. The article left no doubt that such treatment constituted torture.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Surprising? Perhaps not

I suppose that we shouldn't be surprised that the party that brought you the Iraq war would also be the party of physical violence, but still...

Consider:

*Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA) had a five-year affair with a woman thirty years younger than he, which ended when he reportedly tried to strangle her. Sherwood admits the affair (moral values, anyone?), but denies the strangling. Nonetheless, he apparently paid the woman more than $5 million to settle her charges. (Where did he get $5 million plus? If you know anything about the Congressman's finances, please post a comment to illumine the rest of us.)

*A 32-year old single mother made no fewer than 3 calls to Las Vegas police to report that a man who turned out to be Congressman Jim Gibbons (R-NV), who is also the Republican candidate for governor of the Silver State, tried to force himself on her in a parking garage. (A parking garage???) When the woman found out who her assailant was, she dropped the charges, "because of who he is. I just don't want to go up against that," she said.

*Wyoming's only House seat is held by Barbara Cubin (R). After a debate among the candidates had ended last night, she walked over the Libertarian candidate, Thomas Rankin, and told him, "If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face." Mr. Rankin, who has multiple sclerosis, uses an electric wheelchair. One of his aides confirmed Cubin's comment and her campaign did not deny it. (If you'd like to tell the Congresswoman what you think of threatening to beat up a man in a wheelchair, send an email to cubin4congress@wercs.com.)

And Republicans seem surprised at reports that "values voters" plan to sit this one out--or even vote for Democrats.

Loathsome, or Merely Desperate?

It's been widely reported that Republicans have just about given up hope of keeping senatorial seats in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Montana. Bob Menendez seems to have opened up a small lead over young Keane in New Jersey; if it holds the Democrats should not lose a single seat in the Senate this year--a remarkable achievement for any party in any election year. (Or, perhaps, a remarkable failure by the GOP.)

To keep control of the Senate, Republicans have been thrown back upon their Bavarian Redoubt: Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri. Lose two of those seats and Democrats control the Upper House (as long as Joe Lieberman keeps his promise to caucus with them).

The Republican National Committee has started running a new ad in Tennessee, targeting Harold Ford. It features a series of comments from fake men-in-the-street types, and from a woman one of my friends described as a trailer-park bimbo. Take a look at the ad here.

The ad is pretty standard low-humor negative advertising, distorting Ford's record on things like gun control. But, as Josh Marshall perceptively catches, the real point of the ad race, and it's raised by that bimbo. While the other actors talk about issues, she simpers, "I met Harold [Ford] at the Playboy Club." Now, in case you didn't know, Ford is African-American. If he's elected, he'll be the first black senator from the old Confederacy since reconstruction. This ad is directed at his race, and at ancient fears of black men having sex with white women. It's semi-subtle, but it's there.

A new low, even for this political season.

Pets and Theology



The photo above shows our felines, Natasha and Shay-Shay. You may notice that Mr. Shay seems a bit ill-at-ease. That's probably because, although he has the upper hand--or at least the upper position--in this picture, his sister bullies him. (Those who know cats will understand the silly anthropomorphism of saying that they are "our" felines; it would be more accurate to say that we are their humans.)

As I write this, Shay-Shay is in the Angell Memorial Hospital in Boston, battling a kidney infection. (He's supposed to come home today.) He has chronic kidney disease and has just been diagnosed with heart disease as well. His sister, who is about a year older, has diabetes and a thyroid condition. All of which has sparked a good deal of thinking about the mortality of our cats and their place in our lives. That, in turn, has reminded me of something I first realized some years ago.

We live in an age of revived religious enthusiasm that might be compared to the Great Awakening in colonial America during the mid-18th Century or, less favorably, to the religious struggles that consumed Europe 200 years earlier. Religion is on the march, for good or ill. But it seems to me that one great obstacle to conventional theology--at least in the Judeo-Christian-Islamic monotheistic tradition--lies in pets. Yes, pets.

Ask a clergyperson and he or she is almost certain to tell you that animals--not being made in the image of the almighty--have no souls. Take that a step further and one must conclude that, if there is a heaven, pets can't enter, because they have no soul to be--in the Christian sense--saved. (Jews don't have a highly articulated or formalized view of an afterlife, although traditional Judaism envisions a time when the Messiah will come and the dead will rise from their graves, presumably freed from their burial shrouds and the effects of decay, but you can see the parallels.)

Would it be heaven without pets? For many people, no. For myself, I think I probably don't deserve to go to Heaven, but Shay-Shay and Natasha do. And if religion can't accommodate them, there has to be something wrong with religion. I suspect that many people, if they thought about it, would feel the same way.

Are you listening, secular humanists?

Monday, October 23, 2006

21st Century Bourbons

Talleyrand is said to have remarked that the Bourbons of France had learned nothing and forgotten nothing. George W is looking more and more like one of them.

Consider that, even as Sen. Lindsay Graham says that Iraq is descending into chaos, but "the Bush administration said Monday there are no plans for dramatic shifts in policy or for ultimatums to Baghdad to force progress." It's not as if Republicans are united in this; instead, just about every day another member of the GOP finds a way to declare that the present policy is a disaster.

Meanwhile, W has named Richard Strickler, a former coal industry official, to head the Mine Safety and Health Administration. Strickler's nomination was twice rejected by the Senate, so Bush made another of his recess appointments, which allow an appointee to serve, without approval from the Upper House, until the end of the next congressional session. Remember that this comes not only as Bush's popularity is lower than a hard-rock mine, but also following the Sago mine disaster in West Virginia focused attention on the degree to which mine safety has been sacrificed to the interests of the coal operators.

Like the man said, learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

Will that change when the GOP takes a pounding in two weeks, and W becomes a very lame duck? My prediction is that his isolation and arrogance will only increase.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Triple Play

Investigators from the California Attorney-General's office are looking at the Republican challenger to Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) as the source of a letter to Hispanic immigrants threatening them with prosecution and possible deportation if they tried to vote. Apparently, the campaign of Republican Tan D. Nguyen wasn't very subtle: investigators found a mailing company in Huntington Beach whose owner admitted printing and sending the flyers. The owner, who said he does not understand Spanish, told the Orange County Register that he didn't know the flyer broke any laws. He is the one who seems to have pointed the finger at Nguyen's campaign.

You will not be surprised to learn that Republicans are lining up to express shock and outrage at the letter.

Meanwhile, the FBI is investigating the campaign of Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO), who is running for Governor of Colorado (and, according to the polls, trailing badly). It seems that Beauprez has been running an attack ad against his Democratic opponent, Bill Ritter, a former prosecutor, that contained information from a confidential federal data base.

And another Republican loser, Kerry Healey, Lt. Gov. of Massachusetts, has been pretty well tagged with being behind the anonymous letter that revealed--contrary to Massachusetts law--that the sister of Democrat Deval Patrick had been raped by her husband. The offense took place over a dozen years ago, when the couple lived in California. They have since reconciled and live in the Bay State. Joan Venocchi, of The Boston Globe, explains why it's clear that Healey's people were behind the smear. You should read the whole column, but if you have any doubt about what was going on, take a gander at the disclaimer that Healey's campaign released when Patrick accused them of responsibility: "We had absolutely nothing to do with the Herald's description of this information." Shades of Haldeman, Ehrlichman and Mitchell.

Just a Thought

This morning on NPR I heard a correspondent, or maybe it was a commentator (i.e., someone who stays home and bloviates) mention South Korea's "sunshine policy" toward the north--which is, clearly, in tatters.

Apparently, North Korea's Kim Jong Il--who never has a good hair day--drinks a bottle or three of fancy French cognac every day.

Maybe the South Koreans have been going about it the wrong way. Maybe they need a moonshine policy.

Most Fascinating Headline of the Day

(I'm learning not to over-sell these things. See here.)

According to The AP: "Happy, confident students do worse in math."B

As I recall I was neither particularly happy nor confident in high school, and I was still a lousy math student.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

A Secret Plan

If you're old enough to remember the Vietnam War, you'll probably remember that Richard Nixon was said to have a "secret plan" to end the conflict. I believe that Tricky Dick never actually said that he had such a plan, but that once the story started to make the rounds there was no way to stop it.

Now Conrad Burns, the soon-to-be retiring senator from Montana, asserts that Mr. Bush has such a plan for Iraq. Or maybe it's for Afghanistan. Or Iran. It's hard to tell--after all the plan is secret.

Pressed by Democratic Challenger Jon Tester, Senator Lamebrain said, "He [Tester] wants us to pull out. He wants everyone to know our plan. That’s not smart. He says our president don’t have a plan. I think he’s got one. He’s not going to tell everyone in the world.”

So there you have it. If not from the horse's mouth, then from some part of its anatomy.
(If you've noticed uneven posting over the past week or so, it's due in part to getting a new computer up and running. I'm happy to say that the worst appears to be over. Of course, I'm still typing with my fingers crossed, which slows things down a bit.)

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Just What You Were Waiting For

...with baited breath, I'm sure:

A list of AMERICA'S DUMBEST CONGRESSMEN (subhead: Radar ranks the 10 biggest fools on the hill)

No, I'm not going to give you the list. Click the link and see for yourself. I will give you this hint though: You'll nod when you see No. 1.

I would actually quarrel with a couple of the selections (whatever her linguistic gaffes, I think Barbara Boxer is a damn good senator, but I'm not in California, so what do I know?). But still...

Oh, and the graphics in the piece are mind-boggling.

It's Started Again

Efforts to suppress votes are starting already, three weeks before the election.

The AP reports that the California attorney-general is investigating a letter telling Hispanic voters in Southern California that it is illegal for immigrants to vote and that they could be jailed or deported if they try.

Who is behind this? No one seems to know, or at least won't say. But John Kerry received approximately two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in 2004, and past Republican efforts to suppress the vote of ethnic minorities have been well-documented.