The Magic Fades

Over at talkinpointsmemo, Josh Marshall has a very good, brief, take on the multitude of stories about Karl Rove's confidence that the GOP will maintain its hold on both houses of Congress. Asking the rhetorical question, what does Rove know that the Democrats, the pollsters and the professional political analysts know? Marshall answers, "Nothing." He suggests that Rove is posturing, because he knows that if he or W show doubt, the Republican GOTV effort goes down the drain.

I think Marshall is right, although not quite for the reasons he states.

If you think about it, people who become pre-eminent in their fields usually have a limited life. Very few politicians can kindle much enthusiasm after six or eight years. Look at the lives of superstar entertainers and you'll see that their careers usually show a few years at the very top, followed by many more years in which they were successful, but not at the same level. (Consider the films Denzel Washington is making today vs. those he made a few years ago.) Even great men like Einstein usually have a short period of intense originality, followed by years, even decades of testing, extending and developing the ideas that came to them during that burst of creativity. There are exceptions, of course, but they are just that, exceptions.

Rove's playbook is well-known by now, and a bit dog-eared, and it's clear that he hasn't come up with anything fundamentally new for 2006. Democrats know what to expect and they are better able to meet his tricks.

Finally, the world and the nation have changed from 2000 and 2004. This year--although they did not start out to do it--Democrats have taken a leaf from Rove's script and turned the Republicans' presumed strength on national security into a liability. Thanks to Republican folly, they have also gained the high ground on morality in politics and--a week before the voting--it seems pretty clear that the GOP lacks a Democratic poster boy (or girl) to compare with Mark Foley, Duke Cunningham, Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff. At this point, it would take Osama bin Laden on a plate to change things.

So let Karl Rove posture and pose. He's not going to pull this one out.