The gloves come off!

AP reports:

McCain says Obama will 'say anything' to win

Wow.

(I am tempted to mention the pot calling the kettle black, but that's too obvious.)

The race is tightening! The sky is falling!

The horse race meme is still alive.

You probably saw that the AP published a poll yesterday that showed Barack Obama up by only one point over John McCain. Well, I've got news for you--and for Sen. McCain: The poll is bogus. Or, as the Car Talk Guys would put it, BO-OH-GUS!

One key is in the poll's sample of "likely voters," which is the figure that was reported. (You can see the poll itself here.) The problem lies in figuring out who are the people likely to vote. From all respondents, Obama has a 10 point lead. But among "likely voters," as interpreted by the poll, that margin comes down to a single point. Why? We don't know, because we don't know how "likely voters" were culled from all of those who responded. But we do know that the results are substantially different from other polls.

The factor most often used by pollsters to measure "likely" voters is past voting behavior. But as we know, millions of new voters have registered. Not all of them will vote. But many of them have registered because of their enthusiasm over the race this year. And the lion's share of those voters are going to show up and pull the lever (or, more likely, mark the little circle or fill in the blank) for Barack Obama. So polls of "likely" voters are suspect to begin with.

There is also a significant error on page 24 of the poll, where it is related that 45 percent of respondents said they were evangelical Christians. To begin with, only 55 percent of respondents identified themselves as Christian (54 if you are one of those who doesn't count Mormons as Christians). Even if the percentage of evangelicals is 45 percent of 55 percent, that is 24.5% of the sample, more than there are in the nation (some polls said that 23 percent of voters in 2004 were evangelicals, but in fact evangelicals comprise only about 16 percent of the population, and do not vote at a rate 1 1/2 times that of other groups).

Then, too, the percentage of Jews in the sample is only 1 percent; Jews constitute approximately 3 percent of the population. The percentage of Muslims in the sample is too small to be noted; while Muslims are not a large percentage of voters, they are a measurable fraction.

The AP poll is, at best, an outlier. Very likely it was influenced, albeit unconsciously, by the desire to keep the horse race story plausible.

Block the vote

From Rolling Stone:

On February 5th, the day of the Super Tuesday caucus, a school-bus driver named Paul Maez arrived at his local polling station to cast his ballot. To his surprise, Maez found that his name had vanished from the list of registered voters, thanks to a statewide effort to deter fraudulent voting. For Maez, the shock was especially acute: He is the supervisor of elections in Las Vegas [NM].

From our friends at TPM:

A judge weighing whether to close down early voting sites in Lake County's Democratic strongholds questioned local officials about the absentee voting process during visits to the disputed sites.

Lake County Superior Court Judge Diane Kavadias-Schneider toured the Gary, Hammond and East Chicago satellite voting sites Monday and heard hours of testimony and arguments on whether they are legal and fair.

...

When Kavadias-Schneider asked, "What of those who have already voted?" R. Lawrence Steele, a GOP lawyer, replied, "Maybe those votes should be discarded."

So much for democracy.

Your editor will be putting his legal training and license to practice to good use. He's heading for the Sunshine State next week to help keep the bad guys from stealing the election. You can help, too. Many states can use poll watchers or people on phone banks to help voters--even if they are not an attorneys. Or just work for the candidate of your choice on the street or on the phone. If the margins are large enough, they won't be able to steal the vote.

What he really said

Here's the full version of Barack Obama's chat with the famous Joe the Plumber. I know you are tired of hearing about Joe, but because the McCain campaign has continued to use, and misuse, what went on between the Democratic nominee and the world's most famous plumber's helper, we thought it would be useful to take a look at what Obama REALLY said to Joe. You'll notice that he did NOT suggest spreading money around. (You'll also note that Obama appears to think that Joe actually owns a plumbing business, and that he nets more than $250,000 per year. Where did these mistaken impressions come from? The only source I can think of is Joe himself.)

Telllng you where to go (vote, that is)

Do you know where to vote on November 4th? Google helps you find out.

(If your address were 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, you'd vote at The Smiths Center--80's Room at George Washington University, 600 22nd St. N.W., Washington, D.C. And after voting, you could go home and start packing.)

Al Qaeda-linked web site supports McCain

The AP reports:

Al-Qaida supporters suggested in a Web site message this week they would welcome a pre-election terror attack on the U.S. as a way to usher in a McCain presidency.

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, "impetuous" Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Don't you hate when that happens?

As you've probably heard, Rep. John Murtha (D.PA) put his foot all the way down his throat by saying that Barack Obama will suffer, because Western Pennsylvania (including the area he represents) is "a racist area." Good thing for the Congressman that he brings home all that pork. So there was John McCain in Western Pennsylvania yesterday, with Murtha (and by extension, Obama) all lined up in his sights:



Oh, well, it's been a LONG campaign.

Even Palin wouldn't stoop that low

Obama on the McCain robocalls and other sleazy shenanigans:

Truth hurts

The McCain campaign has spent a lot of time and a few million dollars trying to convince voters that Barack Obama is responsible for the sub-prime loan crisis through his ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Now, that is simply untrue. To begin with, those companies--though by no means blameless--were bit players in the greed-fest that put us where we are today.

Oh, and it wasn't Obama that Fannie and Freddie were trying to influence. The AP reports:

Freddie Mac secretly paid a Republican consulting firm $2 million to kill legislation that would have regulated and trimmed the mortgage finance giant and its sister company, Fannie Mae, three years before the government took control to prevent their collapse.

In the cross hairs of the campaign carried out by DCI of Washington were Republican senators and a regulatory overhaul bill sponsored by Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb. DCI's chief executive is Doug Goodyear, whom John McCain's campaign later hired to manage the GOP convention in September.

Cat-blogging

Sassafras (Sassy) is ready for her bath.


Of course, she was really just resting.

A remedy for cynicism

The New York Times tells the story a school teacher in rural Colombia who is dedicated to bringing books to people in the countryside around the small town where he lives, with his own efforts and two burros.

Small steps.

$150 million!

As you've no doubt heard, Barack Obama raised $150 million in September. Even more significant, the campaign reports that more than a half-million new donors, and that the average contribution is only $86.00. True, there are large donors out there, but they are swamped by the number of ordinary Americans (3 million people have contributed) giving hard-earned dollars to change the way Washington works.

McCain may be right that Obama has broken the system of public financing, although it is much more likely that his campaign has shown conclusively that it is broken. McCain may also be accurate in saying that it will take a scandal to bring us to revive the estimable idea that campaigns should be financed by the whole nation. But Obama has shown that the interests cannot compete with the people when the people are aroused.

Another thought about the Powell endorsement

Whether or not Powell's endorsement convinces undecided voters, it has to be one more piece of dispiriting news for McCain supporters. I heard a cut from McCain in Ohio yesterday, assuring his audience that the race is even. Having his long-time friend and fellow Republican Colin Powell reject his candidacy and his campaign must be a blow to his morale and to that of his followers. In the home stretch of the race, such factors can be important, undermining the energy that McCain would need to mount a last-minute drive.

Tough questions

How bad is it for John McCain? He's getting hard cross-examination from Fox News. Unfortunately, this is not because McCain is showing the kind of honorable conservatism that made him notable at one point. Far from it. Take a look:

It ain't over til.....

Josh Marshall examines McCain's slime campaign and warns against complacency. I'm not sure he's right, but he is acute, especially when he points out that the repeated references to Bill Ayers have nothing to do with his years with the Weathermen and everything to do with the opportunity to mention Obama and "terrorist" in the same sentence. Take a look.

Powell endorses Obama

I'm not sure how much it will help, but it certainly can't hurt that Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama on Meet the Press this morning. I happened to be watching, courtesy of a crick in my back that came when I reached into the back of the car for a roll of duct tape yesterday. I was very impressed, not with the fact of the endorsement, but the way Powell expressed himself. In particular, Powell not only criticized and rebutted the slur that Obama is a Muslim, but went on to say what too many of us have omitted: "and what difference should it make if he were?" Powell's appearance did a lot to restore the respect that he forfeited (in my estimation) as W's Secretary of State. Take a look:

So you thought McCain might win Florida?

Think again. A new ad from Obama:

Can't win for losing

That's John McCain (and, last time I looked, the Red Sox). Kevin Drum found this priceless still from last night's debate:

Who won?

Who won the third (and last) debate last night? I don't know. but I know who won the media war of political spots based on the debate:

Shame

The Supreme Court yesterday refused to review the conviction of Troy Davis, the Georgia man who's execution was stayed three weeks ago, two hours before he was scheduled to die. The state is now free to set a new date for the execution and, unless the Georgia Board of Paroles and Pardons has a sudden (and unlikely change of heart), Davis will be put to death soon.

You may recall that there is no forensic or physical evidence against Davis, and seven of nine eyewitnesses have recanted their testimony. If he were given a new trial, there would be no realistic chance of a conviction.

Davis' lawyers took the bold position that the Eighth Amendment's prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment prohibits the execution of the innocent. (I have not read the briefs and therefore I do not know if they also argued that the Fifth Amendment's guarantee of due process is offended by the legalized killing of an innocent person; that seems to me--without the benefit of several years of thought about the matter that counsel have--more logical.)

If you are not a lawyer, the proposition that innocence should prevent execution is probably so obvious that you cannot conceive of how the law could rule otherwise. It shames us to know that our legal system could permit a result such as the Supreme Court has ordained.

And it shames us even more that not one of the justices of the Supreme Court dissented from the refusal to hear Troy Davis' appeal.

The noblest figure in this sad tale is Davis himself. According to the NY Times, his sister quotes him as saying, 'Even if they succeed in killing me, it will dismantle the death penalty system in Georgia because people are tired of injustice.'