Uncharted territory

The House has voted down the bailout bill, 228-205. A screen shot--on TPM, probably from C-span--is reproduced below:



So it looks like the Republican leadership could not--or perhaps WOULD not--deliver the votes; Democrats--unwilling to be exposed to charges that they "lost China"--had reportedly told Republican leaders that they would not bring a bailout proposal to a vote without support from 100 members of the minority party. So, did Republicans pull a fast one, or was the leadership simply unable to bring their people around?

It's worth noting that 40% of the Democrats voted against the proposal, too.

So, where do we go from here? As I write, the Dow Jones is off more than 500 points.

My suspicion is that the Dow's deep dive will push things, that there will be some more changes made to the plan to get some votes on both sides, and that a modified version of the plan will pass by the end of the week. I just hope I'm not whistling past the graveyard.

Debate Camp

ABC reports that Joe Biden is getting advice from Hillary Clinton, Diane Feinstein and Barbara Boxer for Thursday night's Vice-Presidential debate with Sarah Palin. All well and good, but wouldn't he be better off with some coaching from Tina Fey?

Let's ge the story straight

Taegan Goddard, on Political Wire, catches yet another embarrassing slip-up in the McCain campaign.

If they can't avoid these gaffes in the campaign, how would they ever handle running an actual administration?

Discovery

I pounded on doors for Barack Obama in Merrimack, NH, yesterday. (73 doors in a little over 4 hours. I still haven't recovered.) I discovered that there really are Republicans.

I feel like the Episcopal bishop who, being asked if he believed in baptism by total immersion, replied, "Believe in it? I've seen it done!"

(That is, by the way, a story that John McCain butchered earlier this year, telling it as if it were asked of a Baptist who, of course, would believe in total immersion.)

Running up on the rocks

If you're not a close reader of political blogs, you may have missed this, but a number of right-wing commentators are out after Sarah Palin. Kathleen Parker, in National Review Online, says flatly that she should go

Remember all the fuss over Palin, how she was THE story? Seems a long time ago, right?

Say what???

Did McCain really refer to Pakistan as a "failed state" when Musharraf carried out his coup? Yes, he did.

Look for pundits to pick that up in the next couple of days. It's not like Gerry Ford saying Poland was a free country in 1976--while the Iron Curtain was still firmly in place--but it's going to make some knowledgeable people question whether McCain has lost something off the old fastball.

The debate

I watched about 3 minutes of what Spiro Agnew--probably in the words of William Safire, as Agnew probably couldn't have put the phrase together--called "instant analysis and querulous criticism" after last night's debate. I shouldn't have been surprised that the couple of analysts I saw--including Pat Buchanan, for G_d's sake--differed from my take.

While watching, I thought "Obama is shredding him." But, lo, there were the pundits calling it a draw or, in Buchanan's case, a McCain victory.

I admit that I am not objective, but, Huh? What debate were they watching?

I thought McCain looked tense--some of the commentary said both candidates looked calm--as he fidgeted around while Obama answered. He was repetitive--he told us that he hadn't been elected Miss Congeniality in the Senate twice. He wandered at times.

Most important, in Barack Obama Americans--at least those who haven't made up their minds--saw a man in command of himself and the issues. He was calm, but he showed flashes of life. He might not have counterpunched McCain with fury, but he said clearly several times that McCain had misrepresented the record. He was, in a word, presidential. Given the national mood for change--which is only strengthening minute-by-minute given the financial crisis--that's what Obama has to do. If he makes more Americans comfortable with him in the Oval Office, he will win. Simple as that. And he did that last night.

Take a look at James Fallows' perceptive analysis of the debate.

The polls, by the way, agree more or less with what I've said above.

Going where the networks fear to tread

Well, MSNBC, anyway. The network has pulled this ad after Bill O'Reilly made a big thing of it on his show:

The Palin Interviews

After seeing the second part of Sarah Palin's interview with Katie Couric last night, I hope we can all agree to let the poor woman (Palin, not Couric, at least not yet) slide back into a well-deserved obscurity.

Debate!

I REALLY hope that John McCain is forced into debating Barack Obama tomorrow night. Not just because I'm hoping that Obama will come out the clear winner, not even primarily for that reason.

No, my figuring goes this way: With the two candidates rushing (sort of) to Washington for the big meeting on the bailout, and then having to get to Mississippi by tomorrow night, they won't have time to be fully prepared for the questions. AND THAT'S WHAT I WANT TO SEE. It would be good for the American people--and, frankly, good for whichever of them becomes our next President--to see them reacting to questions without being fully rehearsed.

By now it's clear that McCain is increasingly desperate to avoid a debate tomorrow night. Not only has the floated the idea of postponing it until next Thursday, and ditching the vice-presidential debate (I am shocked! shocked!), he's now said that he's confident that a deal on the bailout will be reached by Monday. This comes as AP has been reporting all morning that a compromise is almost at hand. So maybe McCain is going to Washington to throw a lever in the spokes and delay things.

I don't know about you, but I'm feeling better

Here's the joint statement that the Obama and McCain campaigns were hammering out all day yesterday:

The American people are facing a moment of economic crisis. No matter how this began, we all have a responsibility to work through it and restore confidence in our economy. The jobs, savings, and prosperity of the American people are at stake.

Now is a time to come together - Democrats and Republicans - in a spirit of cooperation for the sake of the American people. The plan that has been submitted to Congress by the Bush Administration is flawed, but the effort to protect the American economy must not fail.

This is a time to rise above politics for the good of the country. We cannot risk an economic catastrophe. Now is our chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country.

There, now. Don't you feel reassured?

You can't make this stuff up

From CNN:

McCain supporter Sen. Lindsey Graham tells CNN the McCain campaign is proposing to the Presidential Debate Commission and the Obama camp that if there's no bailout deal by Friday, the first presidential debate should take the place of the VP debate, currently scheduled for next Thursday, October 2 in St. Louis.

La Guerra

A story about a dispute over the grave of Gabriel Garcia Lorca, murdered in 1936, at the outset of the Spanish Civil War, once widely considered the opening act of the anti-fascist struggle, but now almost forgotten.

Andre Malraux wrote, "It was in Spain that we learned that we could be right and yet be beaten, that might did not always conquer might."

C. Day Lewis, later Poet Laureate of Britain, opened his poem The Nabara (about a Basque armed trawler sacrificing herself to save a convoy from the fascists):

Freedom is more than a word,

more than the base coinage

Of statesmen, the tyrant's dishonoured cheque, or the dreamer's

mad

Inflated currency. She is mortal, we know, and made

In the image of simple men

who have no taste for carnage

But sooner kill and are killed than see that image betrayed.

(Apparently, John McCain told an interviewer that his favorite fictional character is Robert Jordan, hero of Hemingway's For Whom the Bell Tolls. Which is interesting, as it is widely believed that the inspiration for that character was an officer in the Abraham Lincoln Battalion, a unit most of whose members were Communists.)

Your senators explain it all to you

Confused about the bailout? Watch this:

Dragon lady?

Jeffrey Goldberg, of The Atlantic, asks, If Sarah Palin is so delicate that she can't chance questions from reporters at a photo-op, how will she fare if, in office, she has to face off against someone tough, like Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero?

Obama on the bailout

Obama's speech on the bailout, as prepared for delivery, in Tampa today:

Yesterday, the President said that Congress should pass his proposal to ease the crisis on Wall Street without significant changes or improvements.

Now, there are many to blame for causing the current crisis, starting with the speculators who gamed the system and the regulators who looked the other way. But all of us now have a stake in solving it and saving our financial institutions from collapse. Because if we don’t, the jobs and life savings of millions will be put at risk.

Given that fact, the President’s stubborn inflexibility is both unacceptable and disturbingly familiar. This is not the time for my-way-or-the-highway intransigence from anyone involved. It’s not the time for fear or panic. It’s the time for resolve, responsibility, and reasonableness.

And it is wholly unreasonable to expect that American taxpayers would or should hand this Administration or any Administration a $700 billion blank check with absolutely no oversight or conditions when a lack of oversight in Washington and on Wall Street is exactly what got us into this mess.

Now that the American people are being called upon to finance this solution, the American people have the right to certain protections and assurances from Washington.

First, the plan must include protections to ensure that taxpayer dollars are not used to further reward the bad behavior of irresponsible CEOs on Wall Street. There has been talk that some CEOs may refuse to cooperate with this plan if they have to forgo multi-million-dollar salaries. I cannot imagine a position more selfish and greedy at a time of national crisis. And I would like to speak directly to those CEOs right now: Do not make that mistake. You are stewards for workers and communities all across our country who have put their trust in you. With the enormous rewards you have reaped come responsibilities, and we expect and demand that you to live up to them. This plan cannot be a welfare program for Wall Street executives.

Second, the power to spend $700 billion of taxpayer money cannot be left to the discretion of one man, no matter who he is or which party he is from. I have great respect for Secretary Paulson, but he cannot act alone. We should set up an independent board that includes some of the most respected figures in our country, chosen by Democrats and Republicans, to provide oversight and accountability at every step of the way. I am heartened that Secretary Paulson appeared to be softening on this position in his testimony this morning.

Third, if taxpayers are being asked to underwrite hundreds of billions of dollars to solve this crisis, they must be treated like investors. The American people should share in the upside as Wall Street recovers. There are different ways to accomplish this, including putting equity into these firms instead of buying their troubled assets.

But regardless of how we structure the plan, if the government makes any kind of profit on this deal, we must give every penny back to the taxpayers who put up the money in the first place. And after the economy recovers, we should institute a Financial Stability Fee on the entire financial services industry to repay any losses to the American people and make sure we are never asked to foot the bill for Wall Street’s mistakes again. We can ask taxpayers to make an investment in the stability of our economy, but we cannot ask them to hand their money over to Wall Street without some expectation of return.

Fourth, the final plan must provide help to families who are struggling to stay in their homes. We cannot simply bailout Wall Street without helping the millions of innocent homeowners who are facing foreclosure.

There are a number of ways we can accomplish this. For example, we should consider giving the government the authority to purchase mortgages directly instead of simply mortgage-backed securities. In the past, such an approach has allowed taxpayers to profit as the housing market recovered. This is not simply a question of looking after homeowners, it’s doubtful that the economy as a whole can recover without the restoration of our housing sector, including a rebound in the home values that have suffered dramatically in recent months.

Finally, the American people need to know that we feel as great a sense of urgency about the emergency on Main Street as we do about the emergency on Wall Street. I have repeatedly called on President Bush and Senator McCain to join me in supporting an economic stimulus plan for working families – a plan that would help folks cope with rising food and gas prices, save one million jobs by rebuilding our schools and roads, help states and cities avoid painful budget cuts and tax increases, and help homeowners stay in their homes.

Let me be clear – we shouldn’t include this stimulus package into this particular legislation, but as we solve the immediate crisis on Wall Street, we should move with the same sense of urgency to help Main Street.

It is absolutely wrong to suggest that we cannot protect American taxpayers while still stabilizing our market and saving our financial system from collapse. We can and must do both.

In summary, there is no doubt negotiations over the next few days will be difficult. I will continue to keep in close touch with Secretary Paulson, Chairman Bernanke, and the leaders of Congress to ensure that we can work in a bipartisan manner to get this done as quickly as possible. Our country is being tested by a very serious crisis. We are all in this together, and we must come together as Democrats and Republicans, on Wall Street and on Main Street to solve it. And with the proper spirit of cooperation, I know we can.

While you were following the bailout debate

Georgia--the state, not the nation--prepares to execute a man who was convicted on the testimony of nine witnesses, seven of whom have recanted. There is, by the way, no forensic evidence tying Troy Davis to the crime. Oh, and three other witnesses have fingered another man--a witness against Davis at the trial--as the killer.

As if that wasn't enough, the US Supreme Court has said that it will decide by September 29th whether to accept Davis' appeal.

Nonetheless, yesterday the Georgia Supreme Court refused, by a 6-1 vote, to delay the execution. Davis is scheduled to be put to death later today.

Davis' only hope now is that the US Supreme Court will issue a stay.

And we call ourselves civilized.

Update: Less than two hours before Davis was scheduled to die, the US Supreme Court issued a stay of execution.

Note that one of the comments below comments on capital punishment as the most premeditated murder. I have long felt that the cruelest part of capital punishment is not the execution, but forcing the condemned to wait, knowing the date and hour of his death.

Quick quiz

Who said it?

Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.

Give up? None other than the Chicago Cubs' greatest fan, George Will.

Could this be a small sign that truth is making a comeback?

Report from the front lines

AP reports that more than 7.5 million people pay 50 percent of their income for housing. Thirty-eight percent of homeowners with a mortgage--that's 19 million people--pay more than 30% of their income for housing; 30% is the level at which the government believes housing becomes a burden.

And the bailout that Congress is now considering won't put more than a small dent in those numbers, at least not directly, and any beneficial effect will be many months away.

Oh, and the election is six weeks from today.

Good news?

Apparently, the administration is willing to give in on some of the Democrats points--but no word yet about that proviso that Treasury has the last word, and that word cannot be questioned.

Update: CNBC reports that there is no deal on the government taking an equity interest in companies that the taxpayers bail out. But note that doesn't say that there won't be a deal along those lines.

Also note that according to CNBC, the Democrats would create an "Emergency Oversight Board," consisting of the Fed chair (Ben Bernanke), and the chairs of the SEC and FDIC to oversee the Treasury's work. The Treasury would also be required to report weekly on assets held and assets bought and sold that week.